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Russian Scientists Claim Asteroid May Hit Earth in 2036

Updated: Thursday, 10 Feb 2011, 6:38 AM PST
Published : Thursday, 10 Feb 2011, 6:38 AM PST

(news.com.au) - The date for Armageddon has been set -- and it's not going to happen in 2012, news.com.au reported Thursday.

Russian scientists claim April 13, 2036 is the day that the Apophis asteroid is most likely to hit the Earth.

"Apophis will approach Earth at a distance of 37,000-38,000 kilometers [23,000-23,600 miles] on April 13, 2029," Professor Leonid Sokolov of the St. Petersburg State University told Ria Novosti.

"Its likely collision with Earth may occur on April 13, 2036."

You might have noticed he used the word "may."

What Is Asteroid Apophis?

Asteroid 99942 Apophis was first discovered to be in the Earth's impact zone back in 2004, and at roughly 1,000-feet (300m) wide, is estimated to be able to hit the Earth with the force equivalent to somewhere around two Krakatoas.

Apophis could land anywhere in a streak that runs from the Middle East through the tip of South America to the west coast of Africa, according to a paper delivered to the 2007 Planetary Defense Conference.

And a simulation tool devised by the University of Southampton in the UK shows that, depending on where it hits, it could cause up to 10 million deaths.

There are several reasons not to panic, though.

One is the fact that it will probably break up and smaller bits of it will bombard the Earth over the next few years.

The other is that we have got a bit of warning.

In 2029, when it swings close by the Earth, we will find out whether Apophis has nailed a gravitational keyhole that will drag it into our orbit seven years later.

The gap is just 2,000-feet (600m) wide, so there is a fair chance it will not happen.

"If it goes through what we call a keyhole during that close Earth approach [in 2029] ... then it will indeed be perturbed just right so that it will come back and smack Earth on April 13, 2036," Donald Yeomans, head of NASA's Near-Earth Object Program Office, told The Christian Science Monitor, before adding that the chance was "minuscule."